Is Mike Burrows’ rotation spot in jeopardy?
· Yahoo Sports
Mike Burrows is the only Astros starter to make every turn in the rotation through the first 67 games of the season, but after another rough outing Sunday against the A’s, and with Hunter Brown due back later this month, Burrows’ spot in the rotation could be in jeopardy.
Burrows allowed five runs, four earned, over five innings in Sunday’s 5-0 loss to the Athletics. He has a 5.77 ERA through his first 13 starts with the Astros, who are 3-10 when he takes the mound. It’s hardly what the team envisioned when it acquired the right-hander in December.
The 26-year-old was the victim of the Crawford Boxes, poor defense, and a .378 opponent BABIP through his first five starts, which led to his FIP being almost two runs lower than his 6.75 ERA. Burrows got his ERA down to 5.04 after throwing seven scoreless innings in Cincinnati on May 8, but he has posted a 6.91 ERA in his last five starts, to go with a 7.50 FIP and .289 BABIP against, suggesting his underlying performance has actually been worse than his results during that stretch.
Keeping the ball in the ballpark has been Burrows’ biggest issue this season. He allowed two more home runs on Sunday, bringing his total to 17. Only Jameson Taillon has allowed more this season. Eleven of those homers have come against Burrows’ four-seam fastball, including both he allowed against the A’s on Sunday.
Burrows arrived in Houston with one of baseball’s best changeups, but his other pitches needed refining, most notably his four-seam fastball, which opponents batted .326 against last season with a .529 slugging percentage. That pitch has been worse this season.
After Sunday’s start, opponents are batting .315 against Burrows’ four-seam this season, with a .781 slugging percentage. Baseball Savant has assigned that pitch a -9 run value, the sixth-worst mark among 300 qualified pitchers.
The Astros acquired Burrows with the hope he could build on the 111 ERA+ he posted last season in his first taste of Major League action, and that he could be a “pillar” of their rotation for the next half decade. That possibility can’t be ruled out after just 13 starts, but the Astros are sure to be experiencing some buyer’s remorse at the moment.
Burrows will make his next turn in the Astros rotation this weekend in Kansas City, but things could get complicated after that. If all goes well Wednesday in Sugar Land, Hunter Brown will rejoin the Astros rotation next week. A stretch of 13 games in 13 days will allow the Astros to utilize a six-man rotation, but that won’t be the case when the calendar flips to July.
Brown, Spencer Arrighetti, and Tatsuya Imai are rotation locks, while Peter Lambert and Kai-Wei Teng are performing at a much higher level than Burrows. Teng could slot back to the bullpen where he was excellent at the start of the season, but would that be best for the team if Burrows continues to struggle over the next couple of weeks? Also, Cristian Javier could be back by that point as well.
He has pitched out of the bullpen before, but a trip down to Sugar Land could be more beneficial. It would allow him to work out some of his issues while keeping him on a starter’s routine. The Astros took a similar approach with Arrighetti at the start of the season, and he has since authored an All-Star-caliber first half.
Burrows has flashed the upside that appealed to the Astros over the winter, and there’s no reason to think he’s a lost cause at this point. But the Astros are just 4.5 games back of Seattle for first place in the AL West and three games back of Texas for the American League’s final wild-card spot. The 2026 season is not a lost cause despite a 30-37 record.
Every game matters, and the Astros cannot afford to keep running Burrows out there if better options are available.
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