Matthew Berry’s Love/Hate post 2026 NFL Draft
· Yahoo Sports
Okay, now we know.
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I mean, I think we know.
Well, we definitely don’t know.
But, I feel better about what I don’t know? If that makes sense?
The 2026 NFL Draft is in the books, free agency is mostly done, and we are all waiting for the schedule release and rookie mini camps.
But, for the most part, we know what we know, you know?
Rosters are more or less set. Yes, there will be some movement. Where does Stefon Diggs land? Does Brandon Aiyuk get dealt? If so, where? And where’s my guy Jauan Jennings?
But, other than a few straggling free agents, the die is cast for our little world. Some players landed in great spots for their fantasy value and some, ahem, most assuredly did not.
And while there is a still a lot of work to do, at least we know what we are dealing with.
As I write this, I am on a flight to Louisville, Kentucky. We are doing my show, Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry, LIVE at Noon ET from historic Churchill Downs on Thursday and then I will bop around, doing some social content as part of NBC’s coverage of the 152nd running of the Kentucky Derby. (Side note - The Kentucky Derby is one of my all-time favorite sporting events to go to. Truly amazing and highly recommended if you ever get a chance to go.)
And on the show Thursday we will be doing “Love/Hate - Post NFL Draft edition” which is exactly what this column is about. As I said when I retired the column last year, I still intend to bring it back for special occasions or one-offs, like I did after free agency and I’ll do a big pre-season Love/Hate as always in August.
So, just to level set, this is entirely about players whose fantasy value went up (“loves”) and players whose fantasy value went down (“hates”) after the NFL draft. Like, as you’ll see, I have Cam Ward listed down below. It’s very clear that Ward’s value has gone up since the draft and the off-season, but you know, he’s still only a low-end QB2 for 12 team leagues, you know? So, just realize that as you read this.
Speaking of Fantasy Football Happy Hour, we will be broadcasting this Thursday and the next two Thursdays before we take an off-season break, so please check it out on the NFL on NBC YouTube channel, on Peacock, and wherever you get your podcasts. And I’m thrilled to let you know The Regulars have put together a Discord for the show to hang out during the off-season. You can join it for free right here.
I’ll be popping in from time to time as will everyone else on the show.
You can also check out my full 2026 Dynasty Rookie Rankings for Superflex leagues, and if you want NFL draft fantasy analysis of every single pick, be sure to check out the NFL Draft section on FantasyLife.com. Seriously, you gotta check it out. It’s so sick. I had nothing to do with it but the guys there did an incredible job.
Finally, as always, thanks to my producer Damian Dabrowski for his help at various points in this column. Let’s get to it:
Quarterbacks I Love After the NFL Draft
Tyler Shough, New Orleans
It’s crazy to think that this time last year, many people didn’t even know how to pronounce Tyler Shough’s name. (As a reminder, “Tyler” rhymes with “Skylar.”) But now, not only is Shough the clear starter in New Orleans, the Saints are doing everything they can to build around him. Before the draft, New Orleans signed running back Travis Etienne (As a reminder, “Etienne” rhymes with “Etienne”) and guard David Edwards, and then they went out and selected wide receiver Jordyn Tyson No. 8 overall, as well as two other pass catchers in the first four rounds. Remember: after becoming the starter in Week 9 last season, Shough was the QB12 in PPG and allowed me to make a million jokes around his name. Let’s Shough-in Go! I’m also a Kellen Moore believer. Did you know that the Saints’ offense ranked first in pace of play last year? Then you factor in all the added talent to go along with Shough being in the second year of Moore's offense after going into his first offseason knowing he's the starter. I see Shough solidly as a mid-tier QB2.
Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia
Is anyone else starting to get the hunch that the Eagles may be moving on from AJ Brown? I guess I’m feeling that way because they signed Elijah Moore. (Nothing says “Eff it, let’s get weird” than signing Elijah Moore). And then they traded for Dontayvion Wicks. And then they traded up to draft Makai Lemon. And I also suspect the Eagles drafted several linemen just because they wanted to have extra muscle available to help Brown move. Lift those boxes with your legs, fellas. Anyway, all the added weapons (TE Eli Stowers in Round 2 included), the likely subtraction of the AJ Brown melodrama distraction and ANOTHER new offensive coordinator has me thinking that we’ll see an improved Jalen Hurts in 2026 with the same amount of running but definitely more passing. And maybe a different Kangol hat.
Others receiving votes: There’s a debate to be had that Tennessee taking Carnell Tate with the No. 4 overall pick wasn’t great value. What we can’t debate, however, is that the Titans were desperate for receiver help. I mean, last season, Tennessee’s leading pass catcher had 560 yards. Jaxon Smith-Njigba had 517 in November alone. So, I think Tate is exactly what the Titans needed to help Cam Ward build on his strong finish to his rookie season. Add in creative new play caller in Brian Daboll (developed Josh Allen and Jaxson Dart) and Cam Ward is suddenly on the radar in Superflex or deep 2QB leagues. … The Jets don’t see Geno Smith as their long-term solution, but having Omar Cooper and Kenyon Sadiq will make things a lot easier for Smith for however long he’s the Jets starter. (As will not having to play behind a Raiders’ line that looked like five overturned turtles 0.7 seconds after the ball was snapped.) … There couldn’t have been a better landing spot for Ty Simpson than Sean McVay and the Rams. The draft capital the Rams used on Simpson at No. 13 means he’s the post-Stafford starter where he’ll get to develop with Puka Nacua and, like, 8 million tight ends, all of which means Simpson has a lot of value in dynasty leagues. … I’ve seen the memes and jokes about how Carson Beck looks like Sid the sloth from the Ice Age movies. But the fact of the matter is, the Ice Age movies have made more than $6 billion in revenue. So, I’ll happily take that type of production in fantasy. With high-talent skill players in place across the Arizona offense, Beck, surprisingly, has fantasy upside as a QB2 as soon as he (inevitably?) replaces Jacoby Brissett.
Quarterbacks I Hate After The NFL Draft
Malik Willis, Miami
The Dolphins continue to express full confidence in Malik Willis as their franchise quarterback. But maybe they’re actually too confident in Willis? Because it seems they think he’s good enough to succeed with nary a shred of talent around him. Well, De'Von Achane is a great talent, sure. But in the passing game? Malik Washington is the only WR on the roster who caught more than 20 balls last season, and he finished with just 317 receiving yards. So, surely the Dolphins would load up on pass catchers in the draft, right? Ehhhhh. Miami didn’t take any receivers until Caleb Douglas in the third round – a selection judged by most every draftnik to be a massive reach. They also took Louisville WR Chris Bell late in the third, but he’s coming off of a torn ACL and may not be ready for the start of the season. Yes, Willis will run. He’ll run and run and run. Because there’s no one to pass to. Sigh. Imagine you’re Malik Willis. After years of being an NFL backup, you finally are a franchise quarterback … for the Miami Dolphins. Congratulations? I guess? Maybe?
Running Backs I Love After the NFL Draft
Chase Brown, Cincinnati
The Bengals had seven picks in the draft and used exactly none of them on a running back. They also signed no running backs in free agency. Which means Chase Brown’s only real competition for touches in Cincinnati is the 30-going-on-31-year-old (and still majestically bearded) Samaje Perine, who had a target share in 2025 of just 4%. The Bengals are obviously more than comfortable with Brown leading the way. Over the past two seasons, Brown ranks ninth among RBs with 584 touches. And, since Week 9 of 2024, Brown is RB6 in PPG (17.9), while averaging 95 scrimmage yards per game. I have Brown slotted as a high-end RB2 heading into the 2026 season.
Cam Skattebo, New York Giants
Back in November, New York Giants running back and American thought leader Cam Skattebo brought the topic of taco domination into the public discourse. Do you dominate the taco? Or do you let the taco dominate you? It’s the same way I look at teams’ running back situations. Does a running back dominate the RB room? Or does he let the RB room dominate him? When it comes to Skattebo, I see him dominating the Giants’ RB room. This does not look like a committee situation. Not after Jeremiyah Love didn’t fall to the Giants, as many expected. The Giants, by the way, did not select a back later in the draft either. They did, however, use the 10th pick on a tackle to help solidify the offensive line. Last season, over Skattebo’s final six full games (Weeks 2-7), he was RB8 in PPG (19.1) and averaged more than 17 touches per game to go along with a nearly 14% target share. As a healthy lead back in the Giants' offense, Skattebo is a low-end RB2 in fantasy.
Bhayshul Tuten, Jacksonville
Like the Bengals and Giants, the Jaguars also did not draft a running back. Is not drafting a RB a new TikTok trend the kids are into? Classic kids. But Jacksonville standing pat at the position in the wake of Travis Etienne’s departure means that Chris Rodriguez Jr. is Tuten’s primary competition for touches. In Rodriguez’s 35 career games, he has just six receptions total and has posted only three games with more than 13 touches overall. I appreciate the CRod truthers trying to make him a THING, but I just say Shit Up Jenny, just get in the car. See? I can do TikTok trends as well. Back in Jacksonville, the far more explosive Bhayshul Tuten (4.32 40-yard dash) should still see at least 10-12 touches per game along with a favorable receiving role in a backfield that last season averaged more than 21 PPG. Give me Tuten as a low-end RB2 with weekly RB1 upside.
Jadarian Price, Seattle
Oh, hey, someone drafted a running back! First, the Seahawks stood clear of the pack by winning the Super Bowl and now this. What contrarians. But listen, with Zach Charbonnet barely more than two months off of ACL surgery, and Kenneth Walker III off to the Chiefs, the Super Bowl champs not only had a need at RB, they needed someone who will likely need to shoulder the load Week 1. Last season, the Seahawks ranked third in rush rate and were tied for first in RB carries. Until Charbonnet is 100%, Price is the guy.
Others receiving votes: Okay, back to being like everyone else by not drafting a running back (and especially not winning a Super Bowl): the Dallas Cowboys. The main competition that Javonte Williams has for touches is Malik Davis and Jaydon Blue. Eh. That means Williams should have a similar role to last season when he averaged 18 touches per game and finished as the RB10 in utilization score (78). … It was easy for opponents to key on Quinshon Judkins last season. It will be harder in 2026. In the top 40 picks, the Browns took OT Spencer Fano and two talented WRs in KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston. A more competent and balanced offense will result in a more productive Judkins. … Washington drafted RB Kaytron Allen, but not until the sixth round. Allen offers little in the passing game, which should cement Rachaad White as Washington’s primary pass-catching RB, and the overall lack of draft capital invested in Allen makes it likely that Jacory Croskey-Merritt begins the season as the preferred early-down option. … Last season, Tony Pollard averaged 93 rushing yards and 5.5 YPC in his final six games (Weeks 13-18), proving he can still be a very productive player. That level of production should continue, or even improve, in a more efficient offense thanks to the additions of Wan’Dale Robinson and Carnell Tate. And while Pollard is the Tennessee back you want now, keep an eye on draft pick Nicholas Singleton long term. Pollard and Tyjae Spears are both free agents after this season.
Running Backs I Hate After the NFL Draft
James Conner and Tyler Allgeier, Arizona
Hey, at least Tyler Allgeier will always have those 46 days from March 9 until when the third pick of the NFL draft was announced on April 23. It was a magical time in which he looked to be Arizona’s RB1. (Cue retrospective highlight reel.) But yeah, with Jeremiyah Love now in town, Love will play the Bijan Robinson to Tyler Allgeier’s … Tyler Allgeier. (Reminder: seven of the past eight RBs to be selected inside the top 10 saw 270-plus touches as rookies.) And Conner, while returning, is about to turn 31 years old and is coming off a serious ankle injury. Allgeier and Connor aren’t the most explosive players and need significant volume to be productive in fantasy. With Love on the roster, the volume simply won’t be there.
RJ Harvey, Denver
RJ Harvey was not efficient last year as a rookie and considering that JK Dobbins has an injury history that could fill several leather-bound books that smell of rich mahogany, it was no surprise to see Denver take Jonah Coleman in the draft. Coleman, who was the fourth back picked, can play on all three downs. He’s also not a zero in the passing game like Dobbins and happens to be bigger than Harvey, so he could very well become the preferred goal-line and early down option if/when Dobbins gets injured. Add that to the fact that, even in the best of circumstances, a Sean Payton-coached team ALWAYS uses multiple running backs. Between drafting Coleman and bringing Dobbins back, it’s clear Payton cares NOT for your Harvey dynasty shares.
Pass Catchers I Love After the NFL Draft
Rashee Rice, Kansas City
Over Rashee Rice’s last 17 full games, he has 163 targets, 120 receptions, 1,377 yards and 10 receiving touchdowns. Is that good? That seems good. Because that’s a 19.2 PPG average. He also has a 30% target share in his 11 full games over the past two seasons. Any way you cut it, that’s elite production. Granted, Rice has never had elite attendance. There is no Perfect Attendance Award taped to his refrigerator. Since entering the league in 2023, Rice has yet to play in all 17 games and has been in just 12 regular season games over the past two seasons combined. But the Chiefs clearly expect him to be good to go in 2026, and as of this writing, no off field concerns. Considering they made no WR additions of note in free agency or the draft; I’m drafting Rice as a top 10 WR this season.
DeVonta Smith, Philadelphia
With AJ Brown now all but officially receiving his mail in another city, he will vacate a career 30.5% target share in Philadelphia. That means DeVonta Smith’s primary competition for targets will be Makai Lemon, a rookie slot receiver. And get this: since 2022, Smith is averaging 19.3 PPG when seeing at least a 30% target share. Smith has also averaged 82 receiving yards in the 43 career games in which he’s seen at least seven targets. Plus, as I reported in my “NFL Combine Rumors” column from early March, I was the first national columnist to mention that the Eagles believe, as good as Smith has been, he has another gear. That, if he ever got the kind of target share that Jaxson Smith-Njigba got last season, Smith could have that kind of season. That has since been reported many times elsewhere by Eagles beat reporters. So, when you think about that, along with the AJ Brown saga being almost officially over, it’s pretty exciting. Only issue is, once Brown is on another team, what will Philadelphia obsess about now? Oh, right … the Phillies got off to a 9-19 start with a $260 million payroll. Way to step up when your city needed you, guys.
Jordyn Tyson, New Orleans
As Jordan and Tyson were to the 1990s, Jordyn Tyson can be to the Saints offense: the perfect fit. (To be clear, I’m referring to the very early ‘90s when Michael Jordan and Mike Tyson were cultural icons, not the part of the ‘90s when Jordan was a struggling minor league outfielder and Tyson was in prison. Okay? Cool.) Anyway … the Saints really did find a great fit in the No. 8 overall pick. Rashid Shaheed vacated a 22% target share when he was dealt - a share that Tyson can now fill. Tyson’s abilities against zone coverage also pair up well with Chris Olave's strengths versus man-to-man. And Tyson also enters a very pass-friendly offense (Shough ranked sixth in passing yards per game after taking over as the starter with 250.7). Considering Shaheed was WR36 in PPG before the trade, I see no reason Tyson won’t be a mid-tier WR3 right out of the gate.
Brock Bowers, Las Vegas
It’s exciting to think what Brock Bowers could do in a functioning NFL offense. Regardless of whether or not the Raiders offense improves in 2026, volume will not be a concern for Bowers. Tre Tucker is the only WR on the roster who had more than 30 receptions last season, and then Vegas didn’t draft a WR until Round 6. Bowers, by the way, averages 19.9 PPG in his career when seeing at least a 25% target share. And while Fernando Mendoza throwing to Bowers is the long-term partnership we want to see, I’m fine with Kirk Cousins starting, too. Cousins has always made targets rain on his TEs like Kohl’s Cash. I’m all-in on Bowers in 2026. He’s my TE2.
Others receiving votes: The last nine WRs to be drafted inside the top 10 all saw 100-plus targets as a rookie (excluding Travis Hunter). So, barring Carnell Tate dabbling in some cornerback play or getting injured, he should get plenty of volume in 2026. … The Colts did not use an early pick on a WR, signaling their confidence in Josh Downs. In Downs’ 22 career games with a target share of at least 20%, he averages 13.7 PPG. … The smart money says that Aaron Rodgers returns to the Steelers. The smart money does NOT say that Rodgers will suddenly get mobile again at age 42. So, the quick-passing game with a low aDOT will still be used heavily in Pittsburgh, which is a good fit for Germie Bernard. The second rounder was effective out of the slot at Alabama and showed good YAC ability. And not for nothing, but during Mike McCarthy’s time with the Packers and Cowboys, his offenses led the NFL in slot targets. … Considering Washington’s existing WR depth chart (Terry McLaurin, Luke McCaffrey, Treylon Burks, Dyami Brown), rookie Antonio Williams likely slots in immediately as at least the WR3. McLaurin is the only WR on the Commanders’ roster who saw a target share above 12% last season. Even if Washington eventually winds up with Brandon Aiyuk, Williams should still play a lot in the slot and profiles as having “The Amon-Ra St. Brown role” in Ben Johnson’s, ahem, David Blough’s offense. Not saying Williams is the same talent or will get the same target share as The Sun God, so don’t get crazy here, but I do think he’s talented and landed in a good opportunity. … The 49ers have talented WRs in Mike Evans, Ricky Pearsall and Christian Kirk, but they have all proven to be injury risks. That creates opportunity for De’Zhaun Stribling, who the Niners liked so much they nabbed him at No. 33 overall. … The Ravens let Isaiah Likely leave and didn’t draft a TE until late in the fourth round, so they clearly think Mark Andrews has plenty left in the tank. Andrews was fourth among TEs in end zone targets last season and, in the four games Likely missed over the past two seasons, Andrews saw 80% route participation and averaged 12.2 PPG.
Pass Catchers I Hate After the NFL Draft
Calvin Ridley, Tennessee
Over the last few years, Calvin Ridley’s fantasy value has been more volatile than oil prices. (Hashtag: topical.) But I think this year, he will finally go the way of Crystal Pepsi. (Hashtag: ProbablyLessTopical.) With Carnell Tate in town, Ridley is now (at best) the No. 3 target behind Tate and Wan’Dale Robinson. Ridley is coming off career lows in receiving yards per game and catch rate and he’s not getting any younger (unlike me, of course). Ridley will turn 32 in December, and last season had a broken fibula and a hamstring issue. I’m staying far away from Calvin Ridley in 2026.
Rashod Bateman, Baltimore
The Baltimore Ravens were a huge disappointment in 2025, and maybe no individual Raven more so than Rashod Bateman. He put up career lows in target share (11.6%), targets per route (12%), and yards per target (5.9). He also had the third-lowest yards per route run (0.70) among all NFL wide receivers who ran 300-plus routes. So, it’s no surprise that the Ravens went out and drafted two big-bodied WRs – Ja’Kobi Lane and Elijah Sarratt – in their first four picks to complement the small and shifty Zay Flowers. Rashod Bateman did our podcast a while back and was awesome, so I’ll always root for him. Just, you know, on someone else’s fantasy team.
Harold Fannin and Jerry Jeudy, Cleveland
Harold Fannin had an outstanding rookie season, and I like him plenty as a player. But the fact is: Fannin was volume dependent in 2025, ranking outside the top 15 among tight ends in both aDOT and yards per reception. Yes, Fannin’s 21.4% target share was fifth among all TEs … but a big reason for the huge target share was the fact that Cleveland did not throw to WRs. The Browns were dead-last in WR target share. Jerry Jeudy got a lot of those WR targets. But among the 28 WRs who saw 100-plus targets last season, Jeudy had the fewest receptions (50), fewest receiving yards (602), and the lowest yards per target (5.7). Ooof. The additions of KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston mean help is on the way for Cleveland’s passing offense … but their arrivals will not help the fantasy prospects of Fannin and Jeudy.
Mason Taylor, New York Jets
I don’t think Mason Taylor needs to shift to a career as a mason or a tailor just yet, but his days as the Jets’ TE1 are over. Kenyon Sadiq will take over as the primary TE in the NYJ offense now, pushing Taylor down to sixth in the pass-catching pecking order on the team behind Garrett Wilson, Breece Hall, Omar Cooper, Sadiq, and Adonai Mitchell. And unfortunately, I don’t see a path for him being productive from a fantasy standpoint in a reduced role. Last season he ranked just 27th among TEs in targets per route run.