Phillies have an unexpected Bryce Harper problem
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The Philadelphia Phillies likely weren't expecting this early-season Bryce Harper development.
Simply put, Harper's defense has fallen off a cliff.
Harper was the third-best first baseman in outs above average in 2024.
Last season, he was still just above the midpoint and tied for 11th at his position.
So far this season, Harper is worst among first basemen and tied for last in baseball with Twins third baseman Royce Lewis.
This trend is bizarre:
Uhhhh Bryce Harper's defense...
— nugget chef (@jayhaykid) April 14, 2026
2024: +8 OAA (3rd at 1B)
2025: +1 OAA (Tied for 11th at 1B)
2026: -5 OAA (Worst at 1B)
He's tied with Royce Lewis for the worst mark for any defender at any position this season.
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Harper's Baseball Savant page allows us to dig a little deeper into this.
They've got a stat called "Success Rate" that they compared to "Estimated Success Rate."
Right now, Harper has a 53% success rate compared to a 67% expected success rate.
Last season, his success rate was equal to expected, and the year before, he was successful more than expected.
Harper has lost five outs above average moving to his backhand side. Last season, he was negative-four in that direction, but he made up for it in other directions. This season, he has just one out above average going in, and is negative-one going back.
It's early, so these samples aren't huge, but it's a concerning trend, for sure.