The 50&10 Club: The Players Who Will Score Less in 2026
· Yahoo Sports
It’s funny how quickly Nick Westbrook-Ikhine became forgotten. We’re only a year removed from NWI popping out of nowhere for the Titans and, from Week 6 to Week 13, scoring 8 touchdowns on 38 targets, a score on 21.1% of his targets. For the season, he ended with 9 touchdowns on 60 targets, a 15.0% that was the highest for any receiver with at least 50 targets in a season in at least the last decade. Almost no one believed it was for real, of course. And it wasn’t. Westbrook-Ikhine had 10 touchdowns on 160 career targets (6.3%) before 2024, and then in 2025 he scored exactly 0 times on 20 targets (that’s, uh, 0.0%). What looked unsustainable turned out to be, in fact, unsustainable, and as of this moment, he’s unemployed only a year removed from that scoring binge. (Update: I wrote this Tuesday, and then he signed with the Colts Wednesday. Still, the point overall holds.) But while Westbrook-Ikhine is an extreme example of this phenomenon, he’s not the only such example. Not by a long shot.
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The 50&10 Club
Any benchmark you set in this exercise is ultimately going to be arbitrary, but I still have one I like: At least 50 targets, a touchdown on at least 10% of the targets. It’s exclusive, but not uber-exclusive. It shows productiveness, but not necessarily historic productiveness. And it portends regression. Just about inevitably. In the last 10 years, 65 players have met that mark, including eight in 2025. Of the 57 before 2025, 54 have scored touchdowns less often the next year. Two of them (2024-2025 Tucker Kraft and 2020-2021 Jimmy Graham) stand out for two reasons: First, they are tight ends (historically, tight ends tend to be goal-line threats and, you know, giants and as such have at least a slightly better shot at repeating). And second, neither actually met the 50-target minimum in the second year. Graham scored on 13.0% of his targets in 2021, but that was all of 23 targets. Kraft was off to a great start last year, but he got hurt, ending his year with a 13.6% scoring rate on 44 targets. So if we want players who have 50 targets, at least 10% touchdowns and improved that scoring rate the next year while still meeting the thresholds, we are at exactly one example: Mike Evans, who scored 13 touchdowns on 109 targets (11.9%) in 2020, then 14 touchdowns on 114 targets (12.3%) in 2021. In the aggregate, the qualifiers in the last decade have scored 510 touchdowns on 4,323 targets (11.8%). Those same guys have dropped to 248 touchdowns on 4,103 targets the second year (5.8%). Basically, that’s roughly half as many touchdowns on nearly the same target total. Does that mean players will be bad? Nah, of course not. For example, in his second year in the NFL, 2018, Mike Williams averaged 41.5 yards per game, totaling 664 yards in 16 games. But, he scored 10 touchdowns on 66 targets (15.2%) and added a rushing score (which doesn’t count for this exercise but is neat). The next year, he only scored twice on 90 targets (2.2%), which was a far worse rate, but he put up 1,001 yards in 15 games, improving his yards per game by more than 50%. He was a better receiver. He just didn’t score as often, because a huge component of receiving scores is luck. The 50&10 Club isn’t undefeated, but it sure doesn’t lose very often. So who should we be wary of in 2026? I’ll start with the wide receivers, and then touch on the four from other positions.Davante Adams, WR, Los Angeles Rams
2025 scoring: 14 touchdowns on 114 targets, 12.3% Previous career best: 12.1% (2020) If there’s anyone who will be our 2020-2021 Mike Evans in 2026, it’s Adams, who has become the goal-line weapon for the Rams. Of his 14 touchdowns last year, nine were within 4 yards of the end zone, and 12 of his final 14 were 10 yards or fewer. Matthew Stafford looks for Adams at the goal line. I’ll take the under on 12.3% in 2026, but he definitely could resemble last year.Tee Higgins, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
2025 scoring: 11 touchdowns on 98 targets, 11.2% Previous career best: 9.2% (2024) Higgins has literally never been bad. But he’s been at his most efficient the last two years — after scoring on between 5% and 7% of his targets in his first four years, he’s been at 9.2% and 11.2% the last two years. So maybe something in the range of 8-10% is realistic for Higgins next year. But after 17 touchdowns in 2024, Ja’Marr Chase dropped to 8 last year despite more targets. Expect those to balance out somewhat in 2026.Christian Watson, WR, Green Bay Packers
2025 scoring: 6 touchdowns on 55 targets, 10.9% Previous career best: 10.6% (2022) Watson is always capable of a breakaway score — five of his six touchdowns last year were at least 17 yards, and he’s gone for 20-plus yards on nine of his 22 career scores. But that’s a tough skill to repeat. To wit, he scored exactly zero 20-yard-or-longer touchdowns in 2023. He scored one in 2024, but that was one of only two scores he had all year on 53 targets. It’s a DeSean Jackson-ian skill set that could lead to pops, but that will also disappoint you all too often.Jauan Jennings, WR, San Francisco 49ers
2025 scoring: 9 touchdowns on 90 targets, 10.0% Previous career best: 13.2%, (2021, though on 38 targets) Previous career best with 50-plus targets: 5.3%, 2024 In the same number of games last year as his breakout 2024, Jennings had:- 23 fewer targets
- 22 fewer receptions
- 332 fewer yards
- 3 more touchdowns