Reasons Colorado basketball can upset No. 16 Texas Tech
· Yahoo Sports
The Colorado Buffaloes are set to face the Texas Tech Red Raiders on Wednesday. A month ago, the Buffs were on the doorstep of an upset in Boulder before falling 73–71 in a game where offense was hard to come by.
Texas Tech shot 41% from the field, Colorado 40%, and the Buffs went just 6 of 21 from three. It is tough to knock off a top-ranked team with that kind of shooting.
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Now, Colorado looks to build some momentum and stack back-to-back Big 12 wins after an eight-point victory over Arizona State on February 7. That task will not be easy. Texas Tech is 11–1 at home this season and 7–3 in Big 12 play, making United Supermarkets Arena one of the toughest environments in the country.
In the January matchup, the usual suspects gave Colorado problems. JT Toppin and Christian Anderson combined for 31 points, 15 rebounds and seven assists, playing a major role in sealing the win in Boulder. Both are projected to be top NBA draft picks this summer, and if Colorado has any hopes of pulling off the upset on Wednesday, keeping those two in check is non-negotiable.
For the Buffs to steal a massive conference win in Lubbock, a few things must go right.
Do not let Texas Tech beat you from three
In five of the Red Raiders' six losses this season, they have shot 38% or worse from beyond the arc. In those games, Tech tends to take more threes and make fewer of them. If Colorado can generate a quick, efficient offense, it could force Tech into settling for deep jump shots, which is where problems arise. The Red Raiders shot 27% from three against Illinois, 24% against Purdue, 42% against Arkansas, 32% against Houston, 38% against UCF, and just 30% against Kansas. In January against Colorado, Tech attempted 31 threes and made only 11. That is a formula Colorado would be happy to see again.
Isaiah Johnson and Barrington Hargress are offensive keys
Both Johnson and Hargress' offensive production has been pleasant and a surprise this season. Johnson, a true freshman and former three-star recruit, leads the Buffs in scoring at 16.2 points per game despite starting only seven of 24 contests as Tad Boyle has slowly expanded his role. Hargress, a transfer from UC Riverside, leads the team in minutes and is second in scoring at 14.1 points per game. In the first matchup with Tech, Johnson poured in 21 points while Hargress added 17, nearly swinging the upset. Johnson also attempted 13 free throws, and getting to the line figures to be a major part of the game plan again. If Colorado can slow the pace and live at the stripe, its chances improve significantly.
Limit turnovers and fast-break opportunities
In Texas Tech's six losses, the Red Raiders average only four fast-break chances per game and eight points off turnovers. Colorado excels in this area, ranking second in the Big 12 behind Houston at just 9.8 turnovers per game. Smart, simple basketball is the goal, and giving Tech extra possessions is not an option. Colorado was right there in the first meeting, and if not for one of its poorer shooting nights of the season, the Buffs might already have a win over the Red Raiders.
Now, more than a month later, Colorado gets another crack at Texas Tech with a clear blueprint for an upset. Execution and composure will decide whether it becomes a reality. According to FanDuel, Colorado enters Wednesday as a 14.5-point underdog, with oddsmakers betting on Texas Tech's dominance at home continuing.
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This article originally appeared on Buffaloes Wire: Colorado basketball vs. Texas Tech preview: Upset path for Buffaloes